Paul Is NOT Dropping Out: A Quick Analysis

Good morning from the Land of the Morning Calm!

I’ve been feeling better and doing a better job about keeping up with the campaign bru-ha-ha the last couple of weeks, and what an eventful few days it has been!  Of course, there hasn’t been much in the MSM about it, but that’s nothing new, so moving on.  Ron Paul has been winning caucuses left and right, and Romney seems to be losing ground daily.  The strategy – which has been made public for months and which we have been using from day one – is working a treat.

Therefore I was a bit surprised this morning when I woke up to check the morning news (Ron Paul updates, in LL speak) that Ron Paul had announced that he was suspending all further campaign spending, as far as advertisements and such goes for the remaining states.  Of course, the MSM, including Drudge, picked this up and immediately proclaimed with no uncertain amount of glee that Paul is out.  The campaign came out almost immediately and denied those allegations, but it seems that the damage has already been done.

Or has it?

I had two initial reactions to this announcement.  The first was to wonder why, when we are steamrolling like crazy, would Ron Paul announce that he is suspending any further spending on state campaigns.  The second was to wonder what the strategy is.  Call me a hopeless optimist, but I’m fairly convinced that there is, in all likelihood, some sort of strategy behind this otherwise mildly perplexing announcement.  Maybe I’m being intellectually arrogant in assuming that Ron Paul has this thing figured out and is, in some meaningful way that will be revealed in time, outsmarting the other foxes in this political game.

Regardless of the end result of the strategy, I think this is partly motivated by cash – or lack thereof.  In the forums I’ve read, there is no shortage of RP supporters who are maxed out on their campaign donations.  This is not the case for me, as I don’t have enough free capital to spend the maximum amount on campaign donations.  Baby on the way and all that.  Still, I think there are probably quite a few supporters who are finding it harder to dig down and empty what little is left in their pockets.  I’ve heard there will be a money bomb on May 17th, and I intend to donate to it, but  to bring this all back around, I do think money is a very real issue here.

Part of me also thinks that the Paul campaign knew what would happen when it announced a suspension of spending: the MSM would declare him out, in spite of the fact that they never really declared him “in.”  For a guy who has been deemed hopeless from the beginning, they sure have been quick to show him the door!  And maybe that’s what the campaign wants.  Romney supporters are hardly known for being supremely well-informed or for flooding state conventions and sticking around for hours to jockey for one of those coveted delegate positions.  The simple truth is that, while Paul supporters seem to know exactly how to come in and turn the tide their way, the average Romney supporter is largely ignorant of how the caucuses and state conventions really run.  This is important, because if the average Romney supporter thinks Romney is now running uncontested, what are the chances that they’re going to get out and vote?  Seriously.  How dedicated is the average Romney supporter?  Not very, in comparison with the average Paulistinian.

I’m not saying these things to be arrogant.  The honest truth is that most Paul supporters I’ve met are far more well-versed in politics, economics, and real issues than the average Republican.  The other thing to remember about Paul supporters is that we have never relied on the MSM for our Paul news.  How could we?  If we did that, the movement would not exist because we would all have given up on him years ago.  The simple truth of the matter is that Paul supporters depend on each other for news, encouragement, and support because we know that mainstream support is not going to come.  This campaign has always depended on individual effort, not loads of cash or politicos backing the movement.  In my opinion, spending millions on advertising will ultimately make very little difference to the outcome, at this point.  Paul has already held rallies all over the country, and the heart of his campaign is already solidified.  If there are real conversions that are going to happen now, they have to happen at the convention in Tampa.

This is what I believe is going on within the Paul campaign.  I think they’re going to let the Romneyites get complacent and lazy (lazier?), and the Paul grassroots will continue to make quiet victories.  Isn’t it better, at this point, if the MSM doesn’t pay us any mind?  Won’t that make the convention all the more interesting?

I will say, as an addendum, that part of me also thinks that it’s possible that Paul has been threatened in some way because of the success of the last week or so.  I hate to think that, and it sounds paranoid, but I don’t consider it outside the realm of possibility.  That said, I really don’t think it’s the case.  I really do believe that there is a strategy, and it is based on the reality of the money situation and the notion that we don’t need the mainstream to win.

So with those things in mind, I encourage all Paul supporters to shake off the feeling that we’re being derailed somehow.  I had that feeling myself for a few minutes, but I’ve felt disheartening moments before in this election cycle.  You have to shake it off and keep on keeping on.  For those of us who support the message of liberty, we know that the fight is not over.  It is never over.  Yes, Ron Paul started the movement, but we’re the ones who have kept it alive.  Don’t give up, and don’t think that we can rest after Tampa, regardless of the outcome.  The rEVOLution is on, and it isn’t going anywhere – as long as we remain committed to the cause: liberty for all.



About The Lady Libertarian
I am American, currently expatriated but hopeful about getting back home one of these days. Besides reading and writing about politics, I enjoy camping, sailing, canoeing, making pie, and traveling. I hope you'll enjoy this blog and find it informative and accessible.

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